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Politics Prediction Markets
Track prediction market odds on political events, policy decisions, and government actions.
Who will Trump nominate as Fed Chair?
94%Kevin Warsh
8%Rick Rieder
4%Judy Shelton
4%James Bullard
Polymarket24h Vol $13.0M
Ends Dec 31, 2026
Republican Presidential Nominee 2028
49%Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
42%J.D. Vance
15%Marco Rubio
3%Donald Trump
Polymarket24h Vol $2.7M
Ends Nov 7, 2028
What will Trump say during the State of the Union?
95%250
94%Trillion
91%Trump
89%Fraud
Kalshi24h Vol $2.2M
Ends Feb 28, 2026
Who will Trump nominate as Fed Chair?
94%Kevin Warsh
4%Judy Shelton
1%Rick Rieder
1%Kevin Hassett
Kalshi24h Vol $1.0M
Ends Jan 20, 2029
How long will the Government Shutdown last?
1%5+ days
1%1+ day
1%3+ days
1%7+ days
Polymarket24h Vol $942.0K
Ends Mar 14, 2026
How much government spending will Trump cut in 2025?
2%At least 1 billion
1%At least 1 trillion
1%At least 500 billion
1%At least 2 trillion
Kalshi24h Vol $631.4K
Ends Mar 31, 2026
Texas Democratic Senate nominee?
68%James Talarico
33%Jasmine Crockett
1%Beto O'Rourke
1%Veronica Escobar
Kalshi24h Vol $487.2K
Ends Nov 3, 2026
Who will Trump mention during his State of the Union address?
95%Biden
87%Maduro
76%Marco / Rubio
72%Dell
Kalshi24h Vol $424.2K
Ends Mar 2, 2026
What places will Trump mention in his State of the Union address?
96%China
95%Venezuela
95%Iran
90%Russia
Kalshi24h Vol $395.2K
Ends Mar 1, 2026
Texas Democratic Senate Primary Winner
71%James Talarico
30%Jasmine Crockett
<1%Emily Morgul
0%Person D
Polymarket24h Vol $394.4K
Ends Mar 3, 2026
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by February 28, 2026?
0%
Polymarket24h Vol $310.3K
Ends Feb 28, 2026
How long will Trump speak for at the State of the Union?
99%60 min or above
99%65 min or above
97%70 min or above
93%75 min or above
Kalshi24h Vol $260.7K
Ends Mar 1, 2026
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?
3%
Polymarket24h Vol $149.5K
Ends Mar 31, 2026
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?
37%
Polymarket24h Vol $148.0K
Ends Dec 31, 2026
How long will the government shutdown last?
100%At least 1 day
100%At least 3 days
100%At least 2 days
100%At least 10 days
Kalshi24h Vol $143.9K
Ends Jan 1, 2027
2026 Texas Senate matchup?
62%Talarico vs. Paxton
26%Crockett vs. Paxton
10%Talarico vs. Cornyn
6%Crockett vs. Cornyn
Kalshi24h Vol $143.7K
Ends Nov 3, 2026
Maine Democratic Senate nominee?
80%Graham Platner
20%Janet Mills
1%Dan Kleban
1%Jared Golden
Kalshi24h Vol $129.1K
Ends Nov 3, 2026
2028 Republican nominee for President?
45%J.D. Vance
20%Marco Rubio
6%Ron DeSantis
4%Donald J. Trump
Kalshi24h Vol $120.8K
Ends Nov 7, 2028
Will the Supreme Court rule in favor of Trump's tariffs?
26%
Kalshi24h Vol $94.0K
Ends Jan 1, 2028
Donald Trump out as President?
43%Before January 20, 2029
35%Before 2028
16%Before 2027
8%Before August 1, 2026
Kalshi24h Vol $74.8K
Ends Jan 20, 2029
Trump out as President before 2027?
14%
Polymarket24h Vol $62.3K
Ends Dec 31, 2026
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?
11%
Polymarket24h Vol $59.7K
Ends Dec 31, 2026
Who will Trump talk to in February?
100%Xi Jinping
100%Volodymyr Zelenskyy
100%Keir Starmer
32%Nigel Farage
Polymarket24h Vol $54.1K
Ends Feb 28, 2026
Florida Republican Governor nominee?
77%Byron Donalds
16%James Fishback
5%Casey DeSantis
5%Jay Collins
Kalshi24h Vol $46.5K
Ends Nov 3, 2026
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by...?
9%December 31
2%March 31
Polymarket24h Vol $42.2K
Ends Dec 31, 2026
Texas Republican Senate Primary Winner
84%Ken Paxton
13%John Cornyn
3%Wesley Hunt
0%Person K
Polymarket24h Vol $41.8K
Ends Mar 3, 2026
Will Trump release more Epstein files this month?
4%
Kalshi24h Vol $41.0K
Ends Mar 1, 2026
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?
18%
Polymarket24h Vol $39.3K
Ends Jun 30, 2026
Trump out as President by March 31?
2%
Polymarket24h Vol $39.2K
Ends Mar 31, 2026
How many times will Trump visit Mar-a-Lago in Feb 2026?
96%4
7%3
1%5
1%0
Kalshi24h Vol $38.2K
Ends Mar 1, 2026
Donald Trump # Truth Social posts February 20 - February 27, 2026?
37%120-139
26%100-119
21%140-159
8%80-99
Polymarket24h Vol $36.1K
Ends Feb 27, 2026
How many Supreme Court justices will vote for Trump's tariffs?
35%3
21%2
17%5
13%4
Kalshi24h Vol $35.5K
Ends Aug 1, 2026
When will the Supreme Court rule on tariffs?
100%Before Feb 1, 2026
100%Before Jan 16, 2026
79%Before Apr 1, 2026
76%Before Mar 17, 2026
Kalshi24h Vol $34.2K
Ends Mar 17, 2026
Will Trump visit China by...?
93%April 30, 2026
76%March 31, 2026
0%October 31, 2025
Polymarket24h Vol $34.0K
Ends Apr 30, 2026
When will Warsh’s Fed Chair nomination be received by the Senate?
100%Before February 13
100%Before February 20
88%Before April
73%Before March 13
Kalshi24h Vol $33.8K
Ends Mar 1, 2026
Who will leave the Trump administration in 2026?
100%Greg Bovino
100%Dan Bongino
51%Kristi Noem
48%Lori Chavez-DeRemer
Kalshi24h Vol $31.7K
Ends Jan 1, 2027
What will Trump say this week (March 1)?
100%Unaffordable Care Act
100%Dell
100%Iowa
100%Mass Destruction
Polymarket24h Vol $30.3K
Ends Mar 1, 2026
Who will leave Trump's Cabinet next?
20%Kristi Noem
18%Pam Bondi
16%Howard Lutnick
11%Lori Chavez-DeRemer
Kalshi24h Vol $27.7K
Ends Jan 21, 2029
2026 2026 Midterms: Congress Balance of Power?
45%D-House, R-Senate
40%D-House, D-Senate
17%R-House, R-Senate
2%R-House, D-Senate
Kalshi24h Vol $26.5K
Ends Feb 1, 2027
Colorado Governor Republican Primary Winner
36%Barbara Kirkmeyer
34%Victor Marx
20%Scott Bottoms
6%Daniel Thomas
Polymarket24h Vol $22.9K
Ends Jun 30, 2026
Texas Senate Democratic primary margin of victory?
22%Talarico, 3-6%
14%Talarico, 9-12%
13%Talarico, 6-9%
12%Talarico, 0-3%
Kalshi24h Vol $22.9K
Ends Mar 3, 2027
Texas Republican Senate nominee?
82%Ken Paxton
16%John Cornyn
3%Wesley Hunt
1%Dawn Buckingham
Kalshi24h Vol $21.8K
Ends Nov 3, 2026
AZ-01 Republican Primary Winner
72%Jay Feely
9%Jason Duey
7%Paul Reevs
4%Joseph Chaplik
Polymarket24h Vol $21.4K
Ends Aug 4, 2026
Colombia Senate Election Winner
86%Pacto Histórico (PH)
11%Centro Democrático (CD)
1%Partido Conservador Colombiano (PCC)
1%Partido Liberal Colombiano (PLC)
Polymarket24h Vol $21.4K
Ends Mar 8, 2026
New 10% US blanket tariff goes into effect by February 28?
100%
Polymarket24h Vol $20.9K
Ends Feb 28, 2026
What will Trump say this week?
100%Autopen / Auto Pen
100%Newscum
100%Rigged Election / Stolen Election
93%Hockey
Kalshi24h Vol $20.1K
Ends Mar 2, 2026
Texas Senate Election Matchup
62%Talarico & Paxton
26%Crockett & Paxton
8%Talarico & Cornyn
4%Crockett & Cornyn
Polymarket24h Vol $19.2K
Ends Mar 3, 2026
Texas Senate winner?
64%Republican party
37%Democratic party
Kalshi24h Vol $18.4K
Ends Nov 3, 2027
What will Donald Trump post this week? (February 23 - March 1)
100%President DJT
100%Democrat
100%State of the Union
100%Iran
Polymarket24h Vol $17.7K
Ends Mar 1, 2026
Will Trump buy at least part of Greenland?
28%Before January 20, 2029
14%Before 2027
4%Before Jul 1, 2026
3%Before May 1, 2026
Kalshi24h Vol $3.9K
Ends May 1, 2026
Latest News
← Back to home
Politics Prediction Markets
Track prediction market odds on political events, policy decisions, and government actions.
Who will Trump nominate as Fed Chair?
94%Kevin Warsh
8%Rick Rieder
4%Judy Shelton
4%James Bullard
Polymarket24h Vol $13.0M
Ends Dec 31, 2026
Republican Presidential Nominee 2028
49%Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
42%J.D. Vance
15%Marco Rubio
3%Donald Trump
Polymarket24h Vol $2.7M
Ends Nov 7, 2028
What will Trump say during the State of the Union?
95%250
94%Trillion
91%Trump
89%Fraud
Kalshi24h Vol $2.2M
Ends Feb 28, 2026
Who will Trump nominate as Fed Chair?
94%Kevin Warsh
4%Judy Shelton
1%Rick Rieder
1%Kevin Hassett
Kalshi24h Vol $1.0M
Ends Jan 20, 2029
Unusual Activity
How long will the Government Shutdown last?
1%5+ days
1%1+ day
1%3+ days
1%7+ days
Polymarket24h Vol $942.0K
Ends Mar 14, 2026
How much government spending will Trump cut in 2025?
2%At least 1 billion
1%At least 1 trillion
1%At least 500 billion
1%At least 2 trillion
Kalshi24h Vol $631.4K
Ends Mar 31, 2026
Texas Democratic Senate nominee?
68%James Talarico
33%Jasmine Crockett
1%Beto O'Rourke
1%Veronica Escobar
Kalshi24h Vol $487.2K
Ends Nov 3, 2026
Who will Trump mention during his State of the Union address?
95%Biden
87%Maduro
76%Marco / Rubio
72%Dell
Kalshi24h Vol $424.2K
Ends Mar 2, 2026
What places will Trump mention in his State of the Union address?
96%China
95%Venezuela
95%Iran
90%Russia
Kalshi24h Vol $395.2K
Ends Mar 1, 2026
Texas Democratic Senate Primary Winner
71%James Talarico
30%Jasmine Crockett
<1%Emily Morgul
0%Person D
Polymarket24h Vol $394.4K
Ends Mar 3, 2026
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by February 28, 2026?
0%
Polymarket24h Vol $310.3K
Ends Feb 28, 2026
How long will Trump speak for at the State of the Union?
99%60 min or above
99%65 min or above
97%70 min or above
93%75 min or above
Kalshi24h Vol $260.7K
Ends Mar 1, 2026
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?
3%
Polymarket24h Vol $149.5K
Ends Mar 31, 2026
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?
37%
Polymarket24h Vol $148.0K
Ends Dec 31, 2026
How long will the government shutdown last?
100%At least 1 day
100%At least 3 days
100%At least 2 days
100%At least 10 days
Kalshi24h Vol $143.9K
Ends Jan 1, 2027
2026 Texas Senate matchup?
62%Talarico vs. Paxton
26%Crockett vs. Paxton
10%Talarico vs. Cornyn
6%Crockett vs. Cornyn
Kalshi24h Vol $143.7K
Ends Nov 3, 2026
Maine Democratic Senate nominee?
80%Graham Platner
20%Janet Mills
1%Dan Kleban
1%Jared Golden
Kalshi24h Vol $129.1K
Ends Nov 3, 2026
2028 Republican nominee for President?
45%J.D. Vance
20%Marco Rubio
6%Ron DeSantis
4%Donald J. Trump
Kalshi24h Vol $120.8K
Ends Nov 7, 2028
Will the Supreme Court rule in favor of Trump's tariffs?
26%
Kalshi24h Vol $94.0K
Ends Jan 1, 2028
Donald Trump out as President?
43%Before January 20, 2029
35%Before 2028
16%Before 2027
8%Before August 1, 2026
Kalshi24h Vol $74.8K
Ends Jan 20, 2029
Trump out as President before 2027?
14%
Polymarket24h Vol $62.3K
Ends Dec 31, 2026
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?
11%
Polymarket24h Vol $59.7K
Ends Dec 31, 2026
Who will Trump talk to in February?
100%Xi Jinping
100%Volodymyr Zelenskyy
100%Keir Starmer
32%Nigel Farage
Polymarket24h Vol $54.1K
Ends Feb 28, 2026
Florida Republican Governor nominee?
77%Byron Donalds
16%James Fishback
5%Casey DeSantis
5%Jay Collins
Kalshi24h Vol $46.5K
Ends Nov 3, 2026
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by...?
9%December 31
2%March 31
Polymarket24h Vol $42.2K
Ends Dec 31, 2026
Texas Republican Senate Primary Winner
84%Ken Paxton
13%John Cornyn
3%Wesley Hunt
0%Person K
Polymarket24h Vol $41.8K
Ends Mar 3, 2026
Will Trump release more Epstein files this month?
4%
Kalshi24h Vol $41.0K
Ends Mar 1, 2026
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?
18%
Polymarket24h Vol $39.3K
Ends Jun 30, 2026
Trump out as President by March 31?
2%
Polymarket24h Vol $39.2K
Ends Mar 31, 2026
How many times will Trump visit Mar-a-Lago in Feb 2026?
96%4
7%3
1%5
1%0
Kalshi24h Vol $38.2K
Ends Mar 1, 2026
Donald Trump # Truth Social posts February 20 - February 27, 2026?
37%120-139
26%100-119
21%140-159
8%80-99
Polymarket24h Vol $36.1K
Ends Feb 27, 2026
How many Supreme Court justices will vote for Trump's tariffs?
35%3
21%2
17%5
13%4
Kalshi24h Vol $35.5K
Ends Aug 1, 2026
When will the Supreme Court rule on tariffs?
100%Before Feb 1, 2026
100%Before Jan 16, 2026
79%Before Apr 1, 2026
76%Before Mar 17, 2026
Kalshi24h Vol $34.2K
Ends Mar 17, 2026
Will Trump visit China by...?
93%April 30, 2026
76%March 31, 2026
0%October 31, 2025
Polymarket24h Vol $34.0K
Ends Apr 30, 2026
When will Warsh’s Fed Chair nomination be received by the Senate?
100%Before February 13
100%Before February 20
88%Before April
73%Before March 13
Kalshi24h Vol $33.8K
Ends Mar 1, 2026
Who will leave the Trump administration in 2026?
100%Greg Bovino
100%Dan Bongino
51%Kristi Noem
48%Lori Chavez-DeRemer
Kalshi24h Vol $31.7K
Ends Jan 1, 2027
What will Trump say this week (March 1)?
100%Unaffordable Care Act
100%Dell
100%Iowa
100%Mass Destruction
Polymarket24h Vol $30.3K
Ends Mar 1, 2026
Who will leave Trump's Cabinet next?
20%Kristi Noem
18%Pam Bondi
16%Howard Lutnick
11%Lori Chavez-DeRemer
Kalshi24h Vol $27.7K
Ends Jan 21, 2029
2026 2026 Midterms: Congress Balance of Power?
45%D-House, R-Senate
40%D-House, D-Senate
17%R-House, R-Senate
2%R-House, D-Senate
Kalshi24h Vol $26.5K
Ends Feb 1, 2027
Colorado Governor Republican Primary Winner
36%Barbara Kirkmeyer
34%Victor Marx
20%Scott Bottoms
6%Daniel Thomas
Polymarket24h Vol $22.9K
Ends Jun 30, 2026
Texas Senate Democratic primary margin of victory?
22%Talarico, 3-6%
14%Talarico, 9-12%
13%Talarico, 6-9%
12%Talarico, 0-3%
Kalshi24h Vol $22.9K
Ends Mar 3, 2027
Texas Republican Senate nominee?
82%Ken Paxton
16%John Cornyn
3%Wesley Hunt
1%Dawn Buckingham
Kalshi24h Vol $21.8K
Ends Nov 3, 2026
AZ-01 Republican Primary Winner
72%Jay Feely
9%Jason Duey
7%Paul Reevs
4%Joseph Chaplik
Polymarket24h Vol $21.4K
Ends Aug 4, 2026
Colombia Senate Election Winner
86%Pacto Histórico (PH)
11%Centro Democrático (CD)
1%Partido Conservador Colombiano (PCC)
1%Partido Liberal Colombiano (PLC)
Polymarket24h Vol $21.4K
Ends Mar 8, 2026
New 10% US blanket tariff goes into effect by February 28?
100%
Polymarket24h Vol $20.9K
Ends Feb 28, 2026
What will Trump say this week?
100%Autopen / Auto Pen
100%Newscum
100%Rigged Election / Stolen Election
93%Hockey
Kalshi24h Vol $20.1K
Ends Mar 2, 2026
Texas Senate Election Matchup
62%Talarico & Paxton
26%Crockett & Paxton
8%Talarico & Cornyn
4%Crockett & Cornyn
Polymarket24h Vol $19.2K
Ends Mar 3, 2026
Texas Senate winner?
64%Republican party
37%Democratic party
Kalshi24h Vol $18.4K
Ends Nov 3, 2027
What will Donald Trump post this week? (February 23 - March 1)
100%President DJT
100%Democrat
100%State of the Union
100%Iran
Polymarket24h Vol $17.7K
Ends Mar 1, 2026
Will Trump buy at least part of Greenland?
28%Before January 20, 2029
14%Before 2027
4%Before Jul 1, 2026
3%Before May 1, 2026
Kalshi24h Vol $3.9K
Ends May 1, 2026